Will the Real Kim Jong-il Please Stand Up?

Tonight, moreso than any previous Halloween, a gaggle of would-be Kim Jong-il’s will be saddling up to good-looking women at parties and warbling, “Tlick or tleat?” And if one or more of these Dear Leader dress-ups happens to be at the same place as a costumed Laura Ling, Euna Lee and-or Bill Clinton (or if a pint-sized Jong shows up tonight on the doorstep of Laura and husband Iain Clayton’s North Hollywood home), then August history may repeat itself in, respectively, amusing and awkward fashion.

However, thanks to Japanese writer and long-time KJi conspiracy theorist Toshimitsu Shigemura, tonight’s Slim Shady Dictator ranks will also conjure up conversation about a fascinating new slant: the idea that Clinton met on August 4th in Pyongyang not with Kim Jong-il #1 but rather KJi #2 or – perish the thought – KJi #3.

Shigemura is no crackpot; once a reporter for the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper, he now teaches international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University. Still, while long-time Asia beat journalist Donald Kirk and others concede that there is little doubt Kim Jong-il has people stand in for him at some public appearances, they firmly believe the big Clinton pow-wow was not such an instance.

Nevertheless, the James Bond-like scenario of a craftily schooled evil twin has understandably captured the public’s imagination; even America’s number one pundit, @EbertChicago, couldn’t help but retweet the idea as a tantalizing question. Bottom line: whether Kim Jong-il died years ago or was simply too sick to glad-hand Clinton for three hours and 17 minutes on the evening of the 4th, this year’s most Oscar-worthy Best Actor candidate may reside in a land where the import of Academy screeners is punishable by death.

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Euna-Laura Trumps Linda-Monica

Last Wednesday evening at Fleming’s Prime Steak House in Sarasota, Florida, Bill Clinton received yet another impromptu standing ovation from a group of restaurant patrons, this time at the close of a day’s worth of golf playing and speech-making sponsored by the parents of Doug and Roger Band, close confidants who accompanied the President on his trip to North Korea. It was the latest vivid reminder of just how dramatically the conclusion brought about by Clinton to the arrest of Laura Ling and Euna Lee on March 17th, 2009 has eclipsed the stain of the Monica Lewinsky and Linda Tripp mess unleashed by Matt Drudge on January 17th, 1998.

The great Op Ed piece that has yet to be written about the Ling-Lee saga is not a rehash of those early morning China-North Korea border events by fleeing cameraman-producer Mitchell Koss, but rather a rumination about the big picture developments that have followed by Lewinsky herself, who now holds a Masters Degree in Social Psychology. It would be fascinating to get random-woman Lewinsky’s take on how two subsequent random-women have completely remade the personal reputation of the 39th President.

Separately, the last-minute decision by Ling, Lee, Koss and their guide to venture into Tumen River territory has triggered a new awareness of the North Korean refugee crisis and sparked some carefully choreographed Hermit Kingdom momentum towards new bilateral and six-party discussions. (It’s also added a new dimension to @lisaling’s feature news reporting.) But for now, the most jaw-dropping tangential turnaround brought about by the @current gals is the realignment of William Jefferson Clinton with the nomenclature of a William Jefferson.

No matter what your definition of is, is, the Clinton comeback IS nothing short of a modern PR miracle. So on this, the two-month anniversary of Bill’s August 4th rescue of Laura Ling and Euna Lee, he owes them an equal debt of gratitude for giving him back his dignity.

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North Korea’s Mata Hari

Although Laura Ling and Euna Lee’s producer-cameraman Mitchell Koss greatly endangered North Korean refugees and their helpers by fleeing back to the Chinese side of the border on March 17th and thereby allowing the Chinese authorities to seize his camera footage, the fallout from his actions is nothing compared to that engendered by Won Jeong-hwa. As we approach the one-year anniversary of this 35-year-old’s time served in a South Korean jail (October 15th), it’s worth revisiting the @CurrentVanguard-worthy case of North Korea’s equivalent to the infamous Mata Hari.

This North Korean spy’s accomplishments are two-fold. Having initially fled to China in the 1990s, she returned in 1998 and went on to help arrange the abduction of some 100 North Koreans and seven South Koreans. Then, in 2001, she relocated to South Korea, where she posed as a defector and firmly established herself as an appointed public speaker, regaling factory audiences with tales of the evil Hermit Kingdom. Along the way, she successfully seduced at least one South Korean officer and passed back information about defectors, military secrets and more.

Jeon-hwa (pictured above) was finally caught in the spring of 2008 with a 65-year-old “foster father,”, and though she could have been given the death penalty for her crimes (she was found guilty on all counts), lucky for her the trial took place in South Korea, not the North. She ultimately received a five-year sentence from the Suwon District Court south of Seoul.

The trial also revealed that during one of her trips back to China from South Korea to liaise with fellow operatives, she took possession of poisoned syringes to assassinate one of North Korea’s highest ranking defectors as well as various South Korean officials. But that part of the plan was never successfully carried out. Still, from November 2006 until her capture, Jeon-hwa made 52 more “security lectures,” during which she customarily blamed the U.S. and Japan for the Korean War and framed North Korea’s nuclear armament as a simple act of self-defense.

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The Queen of Six-Party Simulations

As we approach a seemingly inevitable restart of the Six-Party talks, many different experts are sharing what they think might happen when representatives from the U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea try to cajole North Korea from brinksmanship to the brink of nuclear disarmament. But I would venture to say that no one at the moment has a more pragmatic sense of this setting than Nicole Marae Finneman, Director of Research and Academic Affairs at the Washington, D.C. based Korea Economic Institute (KEI).

Over the past year and a half, through the prism of 730 individual participants and roughly 115 different locations ranging from Princeton to the United States Air Force Academy, Finneman (pictured below) has facilitated students through a carefully scored simulation of the Six-Party talks. Perhaps not surprisingly, she says the outcome that is most rare is one that is best for everyone, where each team winds up with a range of points between 70 to 90 rather than between 35 to 70, with North Korea seriously conceding on nuclear verification in exchange for a significant amount of aid.

“Watching those participants in the role of North Korea discover, then internalize and try to use the significant upper hand they have at the actual negotiating table is what fascinates me the most,” Finneman reveals via e-mail interview with @LiberateLaura. “Almost exactly half of the time, they [North Korea] walk away. On the scoring system, status quo isn’t so awful for them, though they could definitely get a better outcome through negotiation.” (For example, a status quo gives North Korea 60 points and South Korea zero.)

Finneman has noticed certain negotiating traits based on the age of her participants. Older male players tend to interpret their roles more dominantly than their female counterparts, while at the younger college level the balance of power belongs more to the women, who usually take the lead in organizing the process. Finneman does not allow participants to choose their country, randomly assigning the half-dozen geopolitical goodies. Regardless, the person(s) acting as North Korea almost always have an “Ah hah!” moment that connects them with what Kim Jong-il has known for years – namely, that they are in the driver’s seat.

A grant from the Korea Foundation funds Finneman’s busy travels, with trips to North Carolina, Hawaii, Minnesota and Michigan set for the near future. She is also sometimes joined by illustrious invited guests such as Dr. Han S. Park, the University of Georgia professor who played a prominent role in the back channel efforts to release journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee. Finneman will in fact be catching up again with Park next month.

“Each representative of his or her country [at the fictional summit] is given a different point system that assigns value to the different challenges,” Finneman explains. ”So for example, on the nuclear front, verification levels are cart blanche, Full IAEA access, by invite only; in terms of abductees, there is full apology, allowing a commission to investigate further, acknowledgement. And so on.”

“Each possible outcome has an assigned value,” she continues. “The negotiator’s goal is to walk away with as many points as possible, and through negotiation may have to obviously loosen up on one issue to receive the points it desires on another… All told, though I’ve never done the math, I believe there are roughly 50 technically possible outcomes, though I’ve only seen about 12-15 happen.”

So there you have it, the concrete possibility of more than a dozen different outcomes when the real Six-Party talkers sit down together (before or alongside some related U.S.-North Korea bilateral sweetening). And no matter what happens, you can bet that Finneman – whose separate consulting firm also offers negotiating training and simulations – will have a better sense of how things are developing than many of the more widely quoted experts.

Filed under: Interviews

Loose Ends

Laura and Lisa Lisa Ling dined last week with Bill Clinton at the Almond bistro in New York and lunched with Hillary Clinton over the weekend at a branch of the Korean restaurant Woo Lae Oak in Vienna, Virginia. Quite the culinary capper to a summer that thrust two sisters, a former President and a current Secretary of State into a very tight diplomatic corner.

If I were to apply the same questioning mentality to these meals as I did to other signpost events that led up to Laura and Euna Lee’s August 4th release, I would be asking things like: Did Bill and Hillary both personally pick up the tab? Did either restaurant offer their guests a meal on the house? At the Korean restaurant in Virginia, did Laura get a fortune cookie, and if so, what did it say?

But in these waning micro-days of the Ling-Lee case, as the macro level appears set to begin with bilateral sideline six-party discussions between the U.S. and North Korea, the crumbs worth mentioning lie far and wide from the welcome sight of a plentiful meal on home soil.

They Said, China Said: After Laura and Euna claimed in their September 2nd L.A. Times Op Ed that the North Korean border guards reached back into Chinese territory to seize them, China was quick to deny the accusation. Did it happen? Of course – North Korean border guards are known to cross the Tumen River for all kinds of different reasons.

But as it almost always does, North Korea silently acquiesced to its mighty and refugee-complicit neighbor. However, by cosmic coincidence, someone last week posted a 2003 Chinese police report confirming a massacre along the same border – in one night – of 56 North Koreans trying to flee the country. China apparently quietly cremated the bodies and kept the incident quiet, although it was referenced in a 2006 @WSJ article. But the point is, this is the bigger picture – Ling, Lee could easily have been shot, and as they themselves wrote, the story they were trying to tell needs to remain in the public consciousness.

Tracking the Guide: I have been urging a certain South Korean media outlet I am in touch with to keep a lookout for Kim Seong-cheol, the guide who fled back to the Chinese side on March 17th along with Mitch Koss. He was reportedly sentenced to six months in Sino jail, though it is not exactly clear when that sentence began. But by all rights, he should be a free man soon, and the exact circumstances of his apparent trickery are the one final piece of the crime scene puzzle.

The Soccer Squeeze: The North Koreans typically do not acknowledge the concept of a weekend. But in the case of the Ling-Lee trial, the proceedings were adjourned on Friday July 5th so that judge, interpreters, lawyer and everyone else other than the defendants could turn their attention to a World Cup Qualifying match being played the next day in Pyongyang between North Korea and Iran.

Thanks to a tie, North Korea made it into the World Cup for the first time since 1966. If the U.S. really wants the Hermit Kingdom to disarm, they should meet bilaterally with FIFA and make a case for the exclusion of North Korea from next year’s South Africa-hosted tournament until certain diplomatic and humanitarian conditions are met. It’s a bit of a dirty Yellow Card, but after all, that’s the way North Korea plays.

Filed under: Commentary

Grumpy Old Nation

It never occurred to me until today, but on this – the 61st anniversary of North Korea’s birth – all the speculation, analysis and questioning of the Hermit Kingdom’s motivations can arguably be reduced to a much simpler equation. The pricklier half of the Peninsula behaves geopolitically like the cranky senior citizen that it is.

Much of the nation’s unpredictable antagonism comes from its relationship with spoiled older brother South Korea (currently clocking in at a hefty 4,042 years of age). But at this point, the central dynamic is one of Grandpa Pyongyang reacting not just to its sibling but everyone else around it that is also trying to force him into early retirement.

“Put down the [nuclear] power tools!” North Korea’s extended international family is chorusing. “Play nicer with the caretakers! Otherwise, we will have no choice but to keep ratcheting up the rules of the U.N. nursing home. Lights out at 1874!”

Of course, it doesn’t help that this Russian-mid-wifed problem child is currently indentured to another cranky senior – 67-year-old Kim Jong-il. A grumpy old man leading a grumpy old nation has further complicated the situation, as he is wont to steal everyone else’s food, try to prevent visitors from leaving and pal around with the one or two other crazies. North Korea is not a spoiled child, as Secretary Clinton mused @gma recently, but rather a cantankerous senior; either way, a new nickname is in order – the Axis of Drool.

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The Strangely Familiar Case of Dr. Jong-il and Mr. Kim

Today marks the one-month anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s latest “charm offensive.” It began on August 4th with the pre-determined release of American journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee, followed by various other acts of anything-but-random kindness: the release of a Kaesong industrial complex worker, the dispatch of North Korean emissaries to the funeral of former South Korean Prime Minister Kim Dae-jung and the unshackling of four detained South Korean fishermen.

Think of these as the acts of “Mr. Kim,” the nicer half of the “Dearly Demented Leader”’s split charm-offensive personality. But on other days of late, the more evil Dr. Jong-il has taken hold, spewing his anger through the delightfully halting English prose of his dictatorship’s mouthpiece news service, KCNA (Korean Central News Agency).

Does the evil Dr. Jong-il personally approve KCNA verbiage about uranium enrichment and the U.S.’s latest act of evil aggression? That would be fitting, but I have a feeling some trusted lieutenant handles the propaganda day-to-day. (The idea that at one point in the Ling-Lee ordeal KCNA English translation was mentioned as a possible low-impact labor camp duty for the @current journalists is almost too perverse to consider).

The bottom line is that Kim Jong-il behaves very much like a certain Robert Louis Stevenson protagonist during these CO campaigns, trying to win the U.S.’s favor with alternating displays of open arms and clenched fists. What might be next, now that there are no hostages to barter with? Let’s just say the evil doctor has no shortage of possibilities, from a nuclear weapons test to a trusty human rights violation to an immediate demand that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) release that North Korean “machine parts” cargo seized on its way to Iran.

Filed under: Commentary

The Bluff Guide to North Korea

There is much to digest in the September 2nd @latimes Op Ed piece authored by Laura Ling and Euna Lee. They were captured not on the North Korean riverbank that they crossed over to but rather on the Chinese side of the frozen Tumen as they tried to flee; they apparently mistook the hooting sounds and cell phone calls made by their Chinese-Korean guide (separate from other odd behavior) as a way of communicating with friendly North Korean associates rather than ruthless border guards; and they insist that they went out of their way to destroy evidence and protect the identities of interview subjects and those who helped them, in the latter case despite “rigorous, daily interrogations.”

Although the pair claim that “to this day, we still don’t know if we were lured into a trap,” all signs point to the aforementioned guide – Kim Seong-cheol – being the man responsible for the mother of all @current contretemps. Which begs a new question: Where the hell is he?

When Ling and Lee were released in early August, @ReportersWB called on Chinese authorities to release Seong-cheol, as was cameraman-producer Mitchell Koss shortly after March 17th. The organization designated the Chinese-Korean as a third journalist in North Korean captivity, but that really is a bit of a stretch; a better description, based in part on information gleaned from a February 2009 National Geographic article, would have been former drug smuggler with excellent North Korean connections.

I was told not long ago that Seong-chol’s brother claims he knows nothing of his sibling’s whereabouts. Is he covering for someone already living off the bounty of having delivered Ling and Lee to North Korea? Perhaps. But the more likely scenario is that the Chinese do not want Seong-chol sharing his story with anyone, at least for the time being.

Filed under: Commentary

Primed for an Op-Education

As we inch towards Laura Ling and Euna Lee’s promised Op Ed, I thought it might be useful to run through some of the questions I am hoping will be answered. The journalists’ guide is reportedly still in Chinese custody, while cameraman-producer Mitch Koss recently told @NYTimes that he will withhold comment until after Euna and Laura have their say.

1) What did the good Reverend really say? Though Durihana Reverend Chun Ki-won has repeatedly claimed that he warned Ling, Lee and Koss against crossing the North Korea-China border when he last spoke to Euna, one has to wonder why a mother would ignore such advice if it was given. Recent revelations about the Reverend have cast further aspersions on the purity of his Seoul soul, so it all starts with what was said over the telephone to Euna in the pre-dawn hours of March 17th.

2) How was the particular border location chosen? Assuming Ling, Lee and Koss decided on a whim to venture to the frozen Tumen River, it becomes paramount to understand how the specific location was agreed upon, since the well-patrolled spot (on both sides) suggests subterfuge on the part of the guide. Was this the pre-agreed upon destination? Or was it the result of a last-minute decision?

3) What kind of footage was Laura seeking?: Much speculation surrounds the fact that for a story about the trafficking of female refugees, a visual of the stark North Korea-China border qualifies – at best – as non-essential B-roll. But Laura must have had a good journalistic reason to want to include footage from the Tumen River borderline. What was it?

4) Where exactly were Ling and Lee apprehended?: When the U.S. State Department confirmed on June 12th that Ling and Lee had crossed the borderline, they reported that the entire incident took place within a few dozen meters. Meanwhile, the earliest CNN International reports of the arrest quoted South Korean intelligence as saying the women were seen fleeing back towards the Chinese side. How close to the borderline did they get back to? And how quickly did the Chinese border authorities show up? Was there a standoff between the two sides?

5) What was the exact nature of Ling and Lee’s interrogation? When Ling and Lee were carted away from the March 17th arrest site, they were separately interrogated by parties unknown. How harsh was the process? Who was involved? It may well turn out that this phase of the episode, rather than the border arrest and bad-motel equivalent detainment, will prove to be the most egregious once all details are known.

Filed under: Commentary

Black Friday

On Monday, August 17th, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. departed for China to begin a much anticipated term as U.S. Ambassador to our largest creditor and the world’s newest superpower. Today, the South Korean newspaper @Chosun_Ilbo confirmed for many the worst possible fears in terms of fallout from the March 17th arrest at the Chinese-North Korean border of American journalists Laura Ling, Euna Lee and Mitch Koss: namely, that materials seized from the group led to a crackdown on North Korean refugees and those that help them.

It’s not the first order of business that Huntsman was expecting to have to deal with, but since the Chinese seized a camera and other belongings from an American citizen (56-year-old Glendale, CA resident Koss) working for an American network (@current) co-founded by a former American Vice President (@AlGore) – and that Koss was legally in the territory of China while doing so – it becomes paramount for Huntsman to do a couple of things:

- One, he must publically or through back-channel efforts demand an immediate update on the status of all those identified through the materials seized from Koss (25 additional North Korean orphans, female refugees working in the online porn business, activists);

- Two, he must officially request that all materials seized by the Chinese from Koss be returned immediately to the U.S. embassy in Beijing for forwarding to @current.

Huntman is someone who intends to make human rights a cornerstone of his term(s) in China, and although he certainly was not anticipating to have to engage in this area with an urgency that the current situation demands, he has little choice. The safety of dozens (not to mention the legacy of Ling, Lee and Koss’ actions) hangs in the balance.

It will not be an easy task. A recent tally showed that China has more journalists in its prisons than any other country, while the realm of North Korean refugees is one that the country attacks with little mercy, so as to stem the flow of these individuals into its northeastern regions. But on this date – Friday, August 21st – the story of Ling, Lee and Koss has once again reverted back to those less fortunate people trying to escape the clutches of Kim Jong-il’s brutal regime.

Update – 08/21/09: Though @current spokesman Bren Marcus disputes some of the details shared by Pastor Lee @Chosun_Ilbo, the Pastor’s Durihana colleague Reverend Chun tells @NYTimes that two of the women interviewed by Ling-Lee have now fled China in fear of North Korean repatriation, while a third is on the run within the country.

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